NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Kadarius Toney could be a Super Bowl-sized headache for Chiefs as controversy continues

LAS VEGAS – This might be NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe week when Kadarius Toney finally returns to the lineup for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Or maybe not.

The status of the controversial wide receiver is one of the big mysteries on the ramp-up to Super Bowl 58, which is even more compelling when considering what went down during the weekend of the AFC championship game as Toney missed his sixth consecutive game and seemingly blasted the Chiefs during a social media rant.

Is he back in this week? 

"We'll see," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. "We'll see how it goes."

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You'd think that Reid wants to employ all the firepower that he can as the Chiefs try to become the first repeat Super Bowl champion in nearly two decades. When Toney is at his best, he's a weapon, as demonstrated a year ago with a 65-yard punt return that is the longest in Super Bowl history.

But it's deeper than that. Toney, scratched from the lineup officially because of injuries, has been a full participant in practices in recent days but hasn't played since a mid-December victory at New England in Week 15. That's when he added to a series of glaring mishaps by bobbling a perfectly thrown pass that popped into the hands of a Patriots linebacker for an interception. The miscue left star quarterback Patrick Mahomes fuming on the bench, a week after Toney's offsides penalty wiped out a stunning 49-yard, go-ahead touchdown with just over a minute to play in a loss against the Buffalo Bills.

It's not a stretch to think that injuries weren't the only reasons Toney hasn't been active. Before the AFC title game, the Chiefs listed him out due to a hip injury and "personal reasons," which was later revealed to be the birth of his daughter.

His absence was one thing. His reaction to the latest case took it all up a few notches. Toney said during a profanity-laced audio recording posted on Instagram the morning of the championship game that he wasn't injured and implied that the Chiefs were not truthful with their injury designation.

So, of course, Toney has engaged in some damage control as the big game approaches. He told NFL Network on Monday night that his recording "got like a mixed message behind it, I guess you could say."

He went on to suggest that footage was "chopped up" to distort his message. His anger, he contended, was directed at fans of his former team, the New York Giants, who had posted comments on his Instagram page.

"I never attacked the Chiefs," he maintained, "never said anything about the Chiefs...I just wanted to get my message across as far as my injury, but I shouldn't have (done) that at the end of the day.

"I'm a man, and I can accept my mistakes, just like I can accept my wins. But I'm just moving past it right now. We're heading out. We're just trying to win."

Asked whether the rant changed the way he is viewed inside the Chiefs organization, he offered no assurances.

"At the end of the day, I'm not a fortune teller," Toney told Newsday. "I don't know. I don't know."

Regardless, it's fair to wonder whether Toney's case lingers as a distraction.

"He's not a distraction," Reid flatly stated to USA TODAY Sports. "That hasn't been a problem."

That's about what you'd expect to hear from Reid, who job involves minimizing distractions – especially this week.

From over here, it seems like Toney is a shoo-in to make anybody's "distraction watch list." That's not to suggest that Toney is a candidate to get distracted by the temptations of Las Vegas (which, by the way, has the buffer of a 25-mile distance between the hotels where the Chiefs and 49ers are headquartered and The Strip) but rather to pay attention if he's idled again with a Super Bowl on the line.

Considering that Toney hasn't suited up in a game for nearly two months and the diatribe was less than two weeks ago, another subplot could formulate if the big-play artist is benched again.

And if it happens this time, it likely won't be because of an injury as the Chiefs went into practices this week expecting that Toney was healthy enough to fully participate.

"I think he's good," Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman told USA TODAY Sports. "When he's in the building, he works hard and does what he has to do. Everything after that, it is what it is."

If Toney doesn't play this time, it might be a simple matter of trust. Given Toney's miscues this season, which included too many dropped passes, the Chiefs might not want to risk putting a championship into hands that have been so shaky.

Sure, a year ago Toney was one of the Super Bowl heroes. Minutes after he caught a 5-yard, go-ahead touchdown early in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles, Toney ripped off the record punt-return that set up another touchdown. The potential for such explosive plays was one of the reasons the Chiefs obtained the former first-rounder in a trade with the Giants in 2022, despite his inconsistent production and disagreements with the team regarding injuries.

But the game-swinging Super Bowl play seems like a long time ago, given what has happened since.

Toney is a mystery now, with a chance to redeem himself on the big stage...or not.